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FWREWORD        iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS        v

ABBREVIATIORS        vi

CONTENTS        vii

LIST OF TABLES        ix

LIST OF ANNEXES        x

1        INTRODUCTION ANO BACKGROUND        1

1.1        Rationale for County Fiscal Strategy Paper (CFSP)        1

1.2        Rales in CFSP Preparation        1

1.2.1        County Treas ry        1

1.2.2        Departments/ Sectrrs        2

1.2.3        Commission of Revenue Allocation (CRA)        2

1.2.4        Members of the public and In erest Grsups        2

1.2.5        Other DevelopmentoActors        2

1.2.6        County Assembey        3

1.3        Legal Framework for County Fiscal Strategy Paper (CFSP)        3

1.4        Fiscal Responsibility Management (Section 107)        4

1.5        2015 CFSP Strateeie Priorities and Policy Goals        4

2        RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND POLICY OUTLOOK        8

2.1        Background        8

2.2        Global Economic Environment Impacts        8

2.3        National Economic Situation        9

2.4        County Economic Performance and Prospects        10

2.4.1        Oeerview of county economy        10

2.4.2        Growth Prospeets and Chadlenges        10

2.5        Risks to the Outlook        10

3        FIICAL PDLICY AND BUDGET FRAMEWORK        11

3.1        Background        11

3.2        CFSP AlignFenttto Budget Policy Statement        11

3.3        Risk to implemenratton of Couoty Strategic priorities aligned to BPS        12

3.4        Overview or 2015 Medium-Term Fiscal Policy        12

3.5        Fiscal Performance        13

3.5.1        Fiscal colicy        13

3...2        FisRal Reforms and Policy        13

3.6        2015/16 Budget Framework        14

3.6.1        Revenue Projections        14

3.6.2        Expenditure Forecasts        15

3.6.3        Deficit, Debt policy and Debt Sustainability        16

3.6.4        Compliance with Fiscal Responsibility Principles        16

3.7        Challenges in County Public Finance Management        16

4        MEDIUM TERM EXPENDITURE FRAMEWORK        17

4.1        Background        17

4.2        Resouuce envelop        17

4.3        Collaboration with National Government        18

4.3.1        Conditional Allocations from Development Partpers        18

4.3.2        County Lands Management Board:        18

4.3.3        County Policing Authority:        18

4.3.4        County Education Board:        19

4.3.5        Disaster Management and Reduction:        19

4.4        Key Priorities for the 2015/16 Medium Term Budget        19

4.4.1        Sector Priorities (Programmes and Sub-Programmes)        19

4.5        Medium-Term Expenditure Estimates        20

4.6        Baseline Ceilinls        21

4...1        2015/2016 CFSP Allocation Analysis        22

5        CHAPEER FIVE: CONCLUSION        23

6        ANNEXXS        24